Less availability not only will cause fares to rise, it also will push more business travlers to book full-fare seats.
The fares themselves won't go up that much, on average, because RASM takes into account the retrenchment in seats. And leisure travel is likely to feel more of the brunt than business travel, for which demand is comparatively inelastic. But Neidl said business fares will rise as well, and companies can be expected to reduce their overall amount of travel to some degree.
Typical strategies will include shortening the duration of trips to save on hotel and meal costs; sending fewer employees on some trips; making more use of teleconferencing and videoconferencing options.
For essential business travel, further costs will be incurred. The flight cutbacks mean it will be harder to book the flight you want — unless you're willing to pay full fare. Those who are should have few problems with availability.
A silver lining of sorts is that with fewer flights, the congestion problems seen at many major airports recently should clear up somewhat.
But that won't provide much consolation to employers, considering that decreases in the number of flights might become severe. "They'll need further cutbacks if oil is going to stay at $130 a barrel," Neidl said. Oil prices may decline after the summer is over but are not expected to return to the levels seen just a few months ago for the foreseeable future, if ever.
And if oil maintains its historic high level, a drastic solution to the airlines' turmoil could emerge. "It might take one of the major airlines having to liquidate," Neidl observed, "though I don't see that happening this year."
Having fewer players in the field would reduce the likelihood that airlines would undo their flight cuts if oil prices did fall significantly. The high-fixed-cost nature of the airline industry puts a high premium on filling seats however possible, but severe competition in this commodity-like industry continually causes the players to employ pricing and service strategies that end up harming more than helping.
In addition to Continental's flight cuts, the airline said its two top executives, CEO Lawrence Kellner and president Jeffrey Smisek, will give up their pay for the rest of the year, the Associated Press reported.