Demand Forecasting having the same value for all forecast buckets

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Posted on by eric.canicosa

Good day everyone.

I am tasked to implement Demand forecasting for a company with 11 legal entities.

One thing I noticed is that whenever I run the Generate Statistical Baseline Forecast, with a forecast bucket of Monthly and forecast horizon of 24, All values are the same month by month.

This is not even close to the Historical demand data that we import to D365. A product may have a one historical demand for 100 pcs in 2 years but the system interprets it as if there is a forecast for 100 pcs every month.

I use Item allocation keys and have been modifying the forecast algorithm parameters but I always get the same outcome. I also tried using weeks as forecast bucket but I still got the same results.

Is there a way to configure the parameters in such a way that the baseline forecast will closely resemble the historical demand?

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Chris Segurado 612 on at

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Hello,

I hope you and your family are doing well.

To import the historical external demand use ReqDemPlanHistoricalExternalDemandEntity data entity in Dynamics 365 Supply Chain Management. Make sure it is imported in correct format for accuracy of baseline forecast.

When the forecast strategy is set to Copy over historical demand, the end of the historical horizon is ignored. The system copies the number of buckets specified in the Forecast horizon field to the forecast demand, starting from the date set in the From date field under Historical horizon. By copying historical demand from a certain date forward, production planners can make the plan for the next quarter in two ways:

- By copying the demand from the same quarter last year.

- By copying the demand from the previous quarter.

You can make manual adjustment once and transfer them over moving forward. Manual adjustments made in previous demand forecasting iterations can be automatically applied to the new baseline forecast if the Transfer manual adjustments to the demand forecast check box is selected.

Thank you!

Best Wishes,

Chris Segurado

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eric.canicosa 30 on at

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Hi Chris,

Thank you for your reply. I hope everything is well on your end.

If it is ok, I would like to ask some follow up questions:

1. When we use Copy over historical demand, will it be able to cover, say for example historical demand for the last 3 or 4 years?

2. Will it still incorporate the calculation of MAPE?

3. Is it expected that since Azure ML uses time series forecasting, the forecast will be the same (almost) for all forecast buckets?

Thank you so much and I really appreciate your feedback.

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