Here is a copy of the log....
15:09:59| Info| === Microsoft Dynamics CRM for Outlook Configuration Wizard logging started: 2/20/2013 3:09:59 PM ===
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ClientConfig.Initialize
15:09:59| Info| Client Configuration Wizard Version : 5.0.9690.3233
15:09:59| Info| Client Configuration Wizard LanguageID : 1033
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.Validator.IsOutlookInitialized
15:09:59| Info| Query all rows in profile table
15:09:59| Info| Outlook is initialized
15:09:59|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.Validator.IsOutlookInitialized
15:09:59| Info| Client Configuration Wizard Running Mode : Normal
15:09:59| Info| Configuration file Type : OnPremise.
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.MainForm.MainForm
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ConfigInfo.ConfigInfo
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.OutlookCRMDatastoreInstaller.GetAllCRMOrgsInOutlookProfile
15:09:59| Info| Logon mapi store
15:09:59| Info| Logon admin service
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.OutlookCRMDatastoreInstaller.GetServiceIds
15:09:59| Info| Query all rows in msg service table
15:09:59|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.OutlookCRMDatastoreInstaller.GetServiceIds
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ConfigInfo.CleanUpDatastoreIfNeeded
15:09:59|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ConfigInfo.CleanUpDatastoreIfNeeded
15:09:59|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ConfigInfo.ConfigInfo
15:09:59|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.MainForm.MainForm
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.MainForm.MainForm_Shown
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.MainForm.AddServer
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm.ServerForm
15:09:59|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm.ServerForm
15:09:59|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm.SetUIData
15:09:59|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm.LoadAvailableUrls
15:09:59|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm.LoadAvailableUrls
15:09:59|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm.SetUIData
15:10:25|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm._testConnectionButton_Click
15:10:25|Verbose| Method entry: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm.TestConnection
15:10:25|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm.TestConnection
15:10:25|Verbose| Method exit: Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.ServerForm._testConnectionButton_Click
15:10:55| Error| Error connecting to URL: disco.crm.dynamics.com/.../Discovery.svc Exception: Microsoft.Crm.CrmException: Logon failed because credentials are invalid ---> Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.IdCrlException: GetAuthStateEx() - Request Status:
at Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.OnlineServicesFederationLogOnManager.LogonOrgId(String policy, String partner, LOGON_FLAG logonFlag)
at Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.OnlineServicesFederationLogOnManager.Logon(String userName, String password, String partner, String policy, String& memberName)
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.PassportAuthProvider`1.SignIn()
--- End of inner exception stack trace ---
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.PassportAuthProvider`1.SignIn()
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.ClientAuthProvidersFactory`1.SignIn(Uri endPoint, Credential credentials, AuthUIMode uiMode, IClientOrganizationContext context, Form parentWindow, Boolean retryOnError)
at Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.DeploymentsInfo.DeploymentInfo.LoadOrganizations(AuthUIMode uiMode, Form parentWindow, Credential credentials)
at Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.DeploymentsInfo.InternalLoadOrganizations(OrganizationDetailCollection orgs, AuthUIMode uiMode, Form parentWindow)
15:10:55| Error| Error connecting to URL: dev.crm.dynamics.com/.../Discovery.svc Exception: System.NullReferenceException: Object reference not set to an instance of an object.
at Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.FederationLogOnManager.Initialize(String environment)
at Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.FederationLogOnManager..ctor(String environment)
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.PassportAuthProvider`1.GetLogonManager()
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.PassportAuthProvider`1.SignIn()
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.ClientAuthProvidersFactory`1.SignIn(Uri endPoint, Credential credentials, AuthUIMode uiMode, IClientOrganizationContext context, Form parentWindow, Boolean retryOnError)
at Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.DeploymentsInfo.DeploymentInfo.LoadOrganizations(AuthUIMode uiMode, Form parentWindow, Credential credentials)
at Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.DeploymentsInfo.InternalLoadOrganizations(OrganizationDetailCollection orgs, AuthUIMode uiMode, Form parentWindow)
15:11:13| Error| Error connecting to URL: disco.crm.dynamics.com/.../Discovery.svc Exception: Microsoft.Crm.CrmException: Logon failed because credentials are invalid ---> Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.IdCrlException: GetAuthStateEx() - Request Status:
at Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.OnlineServicesFederationLogOnManager.LogonOrgId(String policy, String partner, LOGON_FLAG logonFlag)
at Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.OnlineServicesFederationLogOnManager.Logon(String userName, String password, String partner, String policy, String& memberName)
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.PassportAuthProvider`1.SignIn()
--- End of inner exception stack trace ---
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.ClientAuthProvidersFactory`1.RetrieveUserCredentialsAndSignIn(Uri endPoint, Credential credentials, Form parentWindow, Boolean retryOnError, IClientOrganizationContext context)
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.ClientAuthProvidersFactory`1.SignIn(Uri endPoint, Credential credentials, AuthUIMode uiMode, IClientOrganizationContext context, Form parentWindow, Boolean retryOnError)
at Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.DeploymentsInfo.DeploymentInfo.LoadOrganizations(AuthUIMode uiMode, Form parentWindow, Credential credentials)
at Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.DeploymentsInfo.InternalLoadOrganizations(OrganizationDetailCollection orgs, AuthUIMode uiMode, Form parentWindow)
15:11:13| Error| Error connecting to URL: dev.crm.dynamics.com/.../Discovery.svc Exception: System.NullReferenceException: Object reference not set to an instance of an object.
at Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.FederationLogOnManager.Initialize(String environment)
at Microsoft.Crm.Passport.IdCrl.FederationLogOnManager..ctor(String environment)
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.PassportAuthProvider`1.GetLogonManager()
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.PassportAuthProvider`1.SignIn()
at Microsoft.Crm.Outlook.ClientAuth.ClientAuthProvidersFactory`1.SignIn(Uri endPoint, Credential credentials, AuthUIMode uiMode, IClientOrganizationContext context, Form parentWindow, Boolean retryOnError)
at Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.DeploymentsInfo.DeploymentInfo.LoadOrganizations(AuthUIMode uiMode, Form parentWindow, Credential credentials)
at Microsoft.Crm.Application.Outlook.Config.DeploymentsInfo.InternalLoadOrganizations(OrganizationDetailCollection orgs, AuthUIMode uiMode, Form parentWindow)