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Dynamics 365 Community / Forums / Microsoft Dynamics AX (Archived) / The logic behind deman...
Microsoft Dynamics AX (Archived)

The logic behind demand forecast

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Posted on by Prabhath-AX 105

Hello Team,

I have a customer who wants to start using Demand Forecasting in AX2012 R3. Currently, the master planning module is being run successfully.

Could you please tell me the logic behind generating a statistical demand forecast? 

Just taking a simple case for an item below to a customer for 3 months and I would like to know, what is the basis system has arrived the Demand forecast?

Month      Actual Demand is 

Aug-2018 - 3543

Sep-2018 - 2419

Oct-2018 - 5981

Now, the forecast generated by the system for the period November'2018 is 6978 and December is 1968. How can I check that, this figure is correct??

I have also atttached the generated forecast and period by which, it has run. Apprecating an earliest solution please...

GeneratedForecast.png

Forecast-Generation.png

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  • Verified answer
    Rustem Galiamov Profile Picture
    Rustem Galiamov 8,072 on at

    Hi Prabhath-AX!

    Check this link ellipsesolutions.com/introduction-demand-forecasting-microsoft-dynamics-ax-part-1

  • Verified answer
    guk1964 Profile Picture
    guk1964 10,888 on at

    Use ARTXP if you are looking at short term (less than 5 buckets) predictions.

    Use ARIMA if you are looking for long term predictions.

    Microsoft, recommends using the Value of “Mixed” when using over 5 forecast buckets/periods.

    https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/analysis-services/data-mining/microsoft-time-series-algorithm-technical-reference?view=sql-server-2017

    https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/dynamicsax-2012/appuser-itpro/set-up-demand-forecasting

    https://axcademy.com/2015/11/16/how-to-set-up-demand-forecasting-in-ax-2012-r3/

    https://organicax.com/2014/08/07/basic-settings-for-using-demand-forecasting-in-ax2012-r3/

    https://dynamicsaxtipoftheday.com/2014/06/15/configuring-demand-forecasting/

  • Prabhath-AX Profile Picture
    Prabhath-AX 105 on at

    Thank you for the details. That helps... :-)

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