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Supply chain | Supply Chain Management, Commerce
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Azure Machine Learning forecast generation ignoring zeroes in historical demand

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Posted on by 30

Hi everyone,

I noticed that when generating a baseline forecast using Azure machine learning, it tends to ignore the zeroes in the historical demand. in the figure below, the product has a historical demand for 6 pcs for 12/1/2020, but when the forecast is generated, the system came up with 6 pcs forecast every month. 

pastedimage1628731135070v3.png

Figure 1. Historical demand for 6 pcs only for 12/1/2020

pastedimage1628731142435v4.png

Figure 2.Generated forecast using Azure ML based on the historical demand showing 6 pcs forecast every month

The resulting calculation is far from reality and is not very accurate. Is there a way for AML to consider the months where historical demand is zero? Also, the client doesnt want to use Copy over historical forecast as alternative forecast generation strategy.

Thank you everyone and stay safe.

Best regards,


Eric

I have the same question (0)
  • WillWU Profile Picture
    22,361 on at

    Hi eric,

    Please try removing outliers from historical transaction data:

    docs.microsoft.com/.../remove-historical-outliers-calculating-demand-forecast

  • eric.canicosa Profile Picture
    30 on at

    Hi Will,

    I hope you and your family are doing well.

    The historical demand is coming from an external source and will be imported to D365 via Logic apps. The client is using the D365 system only for Demand forecasting. As such, outliers cannot be readily removed. Manual removal in raw data is also impossible as they have more than 250,000 historical demand records coming in.

    Best regards,

    Eric

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