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Dynamics 365 Community / Forums / Customer experience | Sales, Customer Insights,... / Churn model best pract...
Customer experience | Sales, Customer Insights,...
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Churn model best practices

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Posted on by Dimitri Cbd 5

Hello Everyone, 

We are trying to implement the Churn prediction model in CI for a customer. We have many questions about it in term of best practices:

    • What is the best way to test the Churn model ? To train it on a part of the dataset (all data except last 6 months for example) and then compare results with the other part (last 6 months data) ?
    • Does the event parameter or activity type in activities has an impact on the model training ? What about the detail parameter ? Can we use a continuous variable or only categorical ones ? 
    • Should we split activities to obtain better results, ex: slit entity tasks into phone calls and email correspondence or tickets into incident and asks
    • Why event activities for subscription is set by default to “Is a recurring subscription” when we created it from the Churn model?

If you can help me on one of this point I will appreciate a lot !

Thanks in advance :)

    I have the same question (0)
    • Nimrod Magen Profile Picture
      Nimrod Magen Microsoft Employee on at

      Hi Dimitri,

      Thank you very much for raising it.

      We will come back to you soon.

      Yours,

      Nimrod

    • Suggested answer
      Zhi Profile Picture
      Zhi Microsoft Employee on at

      What is the best way to test the Churn model ? To train it on a part of the dataset (all data except last 6 months for example) and then compare results with the other part (last 6 months data) ?

      • Yes, this is one way for validating out of time performance. Internally, the model is validated at different time points through a sliding window approach.

      Does the event parameter or activity type in activities has an impact on the model training ? What about the detail parameter ? Can we use a continuous variable or only categorical ones ? 

      • Event parameter won’t impact on the model training.
      • Activity type will. If you specified different activity types for different activity data, model features will be created for each type separately and combined.
      • Details: Yes, you can use continuous variable for details to record amount/value about customer activity.

      Should we split activities to obtain better results, ex: slit entity tasks into phone calls and email correspondence or tickets into incident and asks

      • Split activities will increase number of model features as mentioned above. Theoretically, if you have sufficient data, the model should produce better results as you bring in more information to the model by splitting activities. In practice, I would suggest considering the actual data size and how relevant the activity is to the churn risk (ex. If coupon is universal, differentiating receival and redeem will be useful) when making this decision.

      Why event activities for subscription is set by default to “Is a recurring subscription” when we created it from the Churn model?

      • will come back to you on this one
    • Dimitri Cbd Profile Picture
      Dimitri Cbd 5 on at

      Thank you very much Zhi for these informations !

      I'm just a little surprised for the event parameter: you mean that no matter which variable we choose it doesn't impact the model performance. For example for a ticketing activity it would be great to bring more information than just the creation date, but also that this ticket has been created by email/phone or add the customer satisfaction rate on this ticket...  So it is the same for detail parameter ? Whatever we fill in it does't impact the Churn model performance ?

    • Zhi Profile Picture
      Zhi Microsoft Employee on at

      You're welcome!

      Unfortunately, currently only the detail parameter is used in the churn model to take additional info (i.e., satisfaction). In the future version, we will consider to use event for model improvement. Thanks a lot for your feedback!

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