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Supply chain | Supply Chain Management, Commerce
Answered

Adjustment demand forecast

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Posted on by 15

Hi All,

I have requirement to run MRP every 2 weeks with demand forecast 2 times in 1 month. My expectation is demand forecast generated by the D365FO straight away based on demand/consumption historical data. I try to use feature "Generate statistical baseline forecast" to generate "adjustment demand forecast" but the problem what i face it the quantity value in "adjustment demand forecast" columns are same with all column per item and site.

What I expected is D365FO will calculate "first half month" and "second half month" demand based on the demand/consumption behavior per item and site. Do D365FO have the feature to split the demand forecast based on demand/consumption behavior OR based on percentage of monthly demand OR demand forecast split by self when user run the MRP OR the design like that?

Please help me to give the solution for my case or you have idea to optimize demand forecast feature for my case.

Thank in advance :D

I have the same question (0)
  • Jack Moran Profile Picture
    85 on at

    Hello Ivan, couple of questions:

    1) What do you have configured under Master Planning > Setup > Demand Forecasting Parameters > Item Allocation Keys?

    2) When you run the Generate statistical baseline forecast, how are you defining the values under the Forecast Period section?

    If you can, some screen shots of what you are doing in these areas would be helpful in understanding your scenario.

  • IvanWidjaksono Profile Picture
    15 on at

    Hi Jack,

    Thank your ur reply.

    No 1, I don`t use item allocation key because my scenario is I want 100% demand forecast for next 2 weeks (either first half week or second half week) based on historical demand data.

    No 2, Here my print screen, what I did is I run "Generate statistical baseline forecast" for forecast demand next 2 week.

    20883.Untitled.png

    But the adjusted manual forecast always empty

    pastedimage1583765128171v4.png

    My expectation is D365FO will generate adjusted demand forecast continuously like sample below:

    - Demand forecast for 1-15 Mar 2020, I will read historical demand forecast from 1 Dec 19 - 29 Feb 2020.

    - Demand forecast for 16-29 Mar 2020, I will read historical demand forecast from 16 Dec 19 - 15 Mar 2020.

    Or I'm wrong to use the feature or there is another feature could help to generate demand forecast what i expected?

    Thank in advance.

  • Suggested answer
    Rahul Mohta Profile Picture
    21,032 on at

    you may need to run it once per week

    also consider using item allocation keys and choosing correct forecast algorithm in AML setup (demand forecast parameters

  • Verified answer
    Jack Moran Profile Picture
    85 on at

    Hi Ivan, here are a few observations / recommendations:

    First, the setup you provided regarding how you are running the generate baseline forecast

    53380.JPG

    What this is doing is telling the engine to generate a future forecast that projects one week into the future from the date you specified as the start date in the section above this one on the system. You'll also readily note that the drop down in the forecast bucket field does not include anything similar to bi-weekly, so your either going to run as weekly or monthly buckets or customize the system.

    Once you have the basics covered as far as time horizon settings used in generating your forecast, you then should be thinking about what is being done with this forecast (for instance, using as a source of planned demand in master planning). Once you have an adjusted forecast that is acceptable, your next step is to Authorize that forecast. Performing the authorize step pushes that forecast data into other parts of the system. For your particular needs, the place to go next would be the Demand Forecast Lines screen (Master Planning > Forecasting > Manual Forecast Entry > Demand Forecast Lines). Here you will be able to manipulate the original forecast you generate into the bi-weekly time buckets that you seek.

    For instance, I had my system generate a forecast for an item for 20, 067 each for the month of March. Then using the Allocate Forecast process with these settings:

    pastedimage1583845304647v2.png

    I had the system take that value and allocate it forward in 14 day buckets through the end of April, resulting in the allocated forecast lines shown below.

    pastedimage1583846268486v5.png

    I then ran master planning for my forecast plan covering this item resulting in the planned production orders shown below - not a one-to-one match to the allocated forecast lines as there are other settings affecting the result from coverage settings and so forth, but you'll see the base relationship between the two.

    pastedimage1583846169822v4.png

  • Verified answer
    Rahul Mohta Profile Picture
    21,032 on at

    pls suggest if running by week and item allocation as well as Jack's suggestions and mine helped

  • IvanWidjaksono Profile Picture
    15 on at

    Hi Rahul,

    Thank you for your suggestion. Literary I had chosen demand forecast by use ML and then the problem when I ran bi weekly so D365FO will give empty "adjustment manual forecast" if I ran same month with current. Example: I run on 9 Mar 2020 for demand forecast for 16 - 28 Mar 2020.

  • IvanWidjaksono Profile Picture
    15 on at

    Hi Jack,

    Thank you for your suggestion and simulation. I think we have 2 solutions for this cases. The solutions are:

    Option 1: run generate demand forecast every 2 week so 1st run must end of previous month for demand forecast current month date 15 until 31; And 2nd run in middle current month for next month date 1 until 15.

    Option 2: run generate demand forecast every month BUT use allocate forecast use period key.

    I think the best option for my case is option 1. What do you think?

    ML(machine learning) can`t give the demand forecast per 2 weeks by consider site consumption behavior because D365FO always consider demand forecast in monthly?

  • Jack Moran Profile Picture
    85 on at

    Option 1 would be the easier path if the forward time horizon your generating a forecast for is limited. Option 2 would likely be better if that forward looking horizon needs to be of longer duration.

  • IvanWidjaksono Profile Picture
    15 on at

    Yes me either choose option 1. Thx u

  • IvanWidjaksono Profile Picture
    15 on at

    Hi Jack,

    Unfortunately feature allocate forecast must process 1 by 1 record. Do D365FO have bulk process for allocate forecast?

    Thanks

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